U.S. Covid Hospitalizations Surge 29% In Two Weeks
Topline
U.S. Covid-19 hospitalizations have increased 29% over the past 14 days, according to a New York Times analysis of Department of Health and Human Services data, suggesting that a new Covid-19 surge could be underway following a roughly three-month lull.
Key Facts
Forty-seven states reported increased Covid-19 hospitalizations, with the largest increases recorded in Wyoming, where hospitalizations increased by 141%, in New Mexico, where they increased by 114%, and Louisiana, where they increased by 94%.
This national increase in hospitalizations was accompanied by a dramatic 31% increase in seven-day average infection rates and a 10% increase in Covid-19 deaths.
Rises in Covid-19 hospitalizations were strongly associated with rises in Covid-19 transmission—83% of states with hospitalization rate increases above the national average also reported above-average infection rate increases.
Steep hospitalization increases were slightly more likely in states with low vaccination rates—13 of the 25 states with above-average hospitalization rate increases reported levels of full Covid-19 vaccination below the national average of 67%, including Wyoming, Mississippi and Louisiana.
Contra
Covid-19 hospitalizations remained flat in Alaska and decreased by 1% in Rhode Island and by 2% in Maine. These states reported vaccination rates significantly above the national average, except for Alaska, which reported a 63% vaccination rate.
What To Watch For
Birx warned the public to prepare for a Covid-19 surge this summer, which she predicted would hit Southern states the hardest. This prediction is consistent with the New York Times’ analysis of data from the past 14 days, which showed above-average infection rate increases in 14 of the 16 Southern states. The only exceptions were Mississippi and Oklahoma, which reported 27% and 3% infection rate increases, compared to a national average of 31%.
Key Background
The omicron variant, which is more transmissible but less severe than previous variants, has increased infection rates without creating a proportional rise in deaths or other severe outcomes. Though the last two weeks have reflected increases in both infections and deaths, the increase in deaths has been about one-third the size of the increase in infections. Additionally, there is typically a lag between when infections are reported and when deaths and other severe outcomes, increases in infections and deaths reported at the same time may not necessarily be directly connected. Not all of the disease’s effects are well understood: researchers are still studying how Covid-19 damages the brain and inhibits smell and the mechanism behind the long-term symptoms that afflict about 1 in 5 adult survivors of the disease. Even when vaccines fail to prevent Covid-19 infection, they offer protection against severe outcomes. According to a study published Wednesday by Nature Medicine, vaccination reduced the risk of death for Covid-19 patients by 34% and reduced the risk of lung disorders by 49%.
Further Reading
“Ex-Trump Advisor Birx Warns Of Summer Covid ‘Surge’” (Forbes)
