China’s Big Long March 5B Rocket Will Begin Its Fall To Earth Any Moment

A big Chinese rocket booster is expected to make an uncontrolled descent from orbit to the surface of Earth at some point on Saturday.

It’s very likely that most of the 23-ton hunk of metal, tanks and other components will burn up as it tears through the atmosphere at literally blazing speed. Analysts expect that a ton or two of debris could survive all the way to the surface, falling over a long debris field that could span a large area of territory.

Fortunately, the odds are that most of what remains of the ten-story Long March 5B rocket booster (also referred to as a CZ-5B) will fall in the ocean.

A number of experts and organizations have been tracking the spent rocket since it became clear earlier this week that it would not be steered to a controlled disposal. The most recent predictions as of Saturday morning sometime around midday, Pacific Time.

During the predicted re-entry window, the CZ-5B is expected to be make a wide sweeping arc through the southern hemisphere that will mostly pass over large swaths of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, but will also fly above parts of South America, China and other Asian nations.

The latest tracking and impact prediction from the US Space Force projects re-entry occurring as soon as 9:20 a.m. PT Saturday.

The booster successfully sent the new Wentian laboratory module to the Tiangong space station last weekend. But the CZ-5B appears to lack the capability to make a controlled re-entry.

The two previous missions using the big booster also ended in uncontrolled re-entries, with one landing in the ocean and another dropping debris over western Africa. No major damage or casualties were reported in that instance.

The bottom line is that the risk to people and property is low, but it could easily be reduced to practically zero risk with a few modifications that are commonplace in the industry.

Once inside the predicted window of re-entry, no news is good news as it will take a while to determine where the remains of the rocket wound up, particularly if they fall harmlessly and largely unwitnessed into the ocean.

Developing story….

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